User:Vtaylor/Financial reality

this time it's different. what most people missed and why they didn't see it coming

interesting "rules", untruths, mistakes, common misunderstanding, myths applicable to real world money and finance * financial reality stories * concepts applicable to finance

2018.6.19 - index

• National Association of Home Builders Housing Market Index * NAHB Index Declines Again * Reflecting increasing builder concerns about conditions in the market for new single-family homes,

• Mortgage Bankers Association seasonally adjusted market index * One Ring to Rule Them All * a measure of mortgage activity,

2018.6.19 - rule

• Lizards Rule ** * On its world, the people are people. The leaders are lizards. The people hate the lizards and the lizards rule the people.

• Michael O’Higgins’s investing rules * Get paid for taking risk. If the price of gold is rising, don’t buy bonds. When buying stocks, stick to the “Dogs of the Dow”.

• Fed rulebook * Throwing Out The Rulebook * government threw out the rulebook in 1933 by going off the gold standard.

2018.6.18 - theory

• Byzantine generals problem * Blockchain RIP - can't know everything and don't know who can count on

• Modern Money Theory ** neither modern or a theory - hypothesis as there is no proof it works in practice

• Bastiat's fallacy / broken window fallacy * Modern Money Theory - government doesn't create value, just consumption

• Dow Theory * Dow Theory Bear -neither duration nor the extent of the primary trend can be predicted in advance.

• Greater Fools Theory * The Bitcoin Market - someone else will always pay you more than you paid some lesser fool that you bought it from * Double Trouble - ICO Fraud

• control system theory * Toilet Paper - cyclic volatility decline increase decline increase to net zero. buy low and sell high

• what theory predicts is happening, the data flow is obviously wrong ... * Clear as Glass * rather tha understand why the data and theory don't match up

• Keynesian theory * The State of Nature * government multiplier is zero or slightly negative * consumption based tax multiplier * story - arbitrary regulation that discourage business to open and create jobs * Treasure Map of time advantage of HFTs

• heuristic methods given lack ofa functioning predictive theory * Dottines - what's the point of doing experiments then failing to learn from them

• control theory * Fine Tuning * lagging data, mechanism that takes month / years to have effect

• correlation vs causation * Stick a fork in it -

• Modern Monetary Theory ( Out of Control - stable control system is possible - linear differential equations

• story - Ron Paul's Farewell - until there's no loot left to divvy up . massess have been quite receptive to the promises of the authoritarians which are rarely if ever fulfilled * most of our wealth today depends on debt * concentrate on material abundance that freedom generates while ignoring freedom itself * why can't Americans decide which type of light bulbs they can buy?
• The theory of a society being based on individual freedom has been around for a long time. It’s time to take a bold step and actually permit it by advancing this cause, rather than taking a step backwards as some would like us to do.

• Byzantine generals problem . blochchain https://financialreality.wordpress.com/2018/06/08/blockchain-rip/

• bubble - 2012 observation prediction vs 2018 animal spirits,” the term that John Maynard Keynes used to describe emotions which influence economic behaviour. https://financialreality.wordpress.com/2012/07/06/ready-to-pop/

• James Grant "monetary mandarins is they [the Fed] believe impossible things. They have persuaded themselves that the central bank can pick the interest rate that will cause the GDP to grow, payrolls to expand, and prices to levitate by just two percent a year, as they measure it. It is impossible as experience and common sense attest. Yet, they hold it to be true." https://financialreality.wordpress.com/2018/03/23/the-phd-standard/

• Bastiat’s “that which is not seen, https://financialreality.wordpress.com/2011/04/17/reaping-the-whirlwind/

2018.6

diigo

economists - origins, belief, misuse * depression - characteristics, lead-up, probable cause * crash - history 1930s * bubble - housing debt commodity * centralbank * frpeople - Volker, Keynes, * frstory * frfacts * recovery * frproblem - financial, monetary, mathematical unsolvable * frdefl - definitions, concepts * manipulation unseen unintended second-order